נדל"ן כפנסיה אלטרנטיבית

נדל"ן כפנסיה אלטרנטיבית

זה לא סוד שאריכות הימים הולכת ועולה בעשורים האחרונים, חדשות טובות מצד אחד, אבל נדרשים לנו סכומי חסכון גבוהים יותר בעת הפרישה מצד שני.

מאמר מעניין של חברת PIMCO  מדבר על כך שכיום כפליים יקר יותר לפרוש בארה"ב מאשר לפני 25 שנים. הנתונים אמנם מבוססים על אוכלוסיית ארה"ב אבל המשתנים הכלכליים נכונים גם לישראל.

כדי להבין טוב יותר את הנאמר כדאי להתעכב על משמעות מקדם הקצבה.

מקדם הקצבה הוא הערך הנוכחי של דולר המשולם (למי שפורש בגיל 67 )ביום הולדתו ה-68 , 69, 70 וכו..אם הוא בחיים הוא מקבל את הדולר, אם הולך לעולמו, לא מקבל. מקדם הקצבה הוא תוצר של שני משתנים: שערי הריבית ואריכות החיים. ככל שמקדם הקצבה גבוה יותר,כך הסכום הנדרש לפרישה גבוה יותר על מנת לשמור על רמת צריכה נאותה בשנות הפרישה.

לפני 25 שנים מקדם הקצבה לגבר בארה"ב עמד על 8.5, כיום זה כמעט 17!

כלומר כפול!!! מדוע ?

רבע מעליה זו מוסברת על ידי הסיבה הטובה: העליה באריכות הימים. אורך החיים לגבר עלה בערך ב-1.6 שנים בכל עשור במהלך העשורים האחרונים.

כלומר בממוצע, מי שפורש היום צפוי לחיות 4 שנים יותר מאביו. הסיפור דומה אצל נשים אבל במספרים מתונים יותר.

החלק השני של ההסבר לעליה במקדם הקצבה נעוץ בשער הריבית הנמוך , הרבה יותר נמוך משער הריבית לפני 25 שנה. בשנת 1991 התשואה על שטרי האוצר של ארה"ב ל-10 שנים היתה יותר מ-8% לעומת 2.4% כיום.

הירידה הזו מסבירה כשלושה רבעים מהעליה במקדם הקצבה. במימון אנו משתמשים בשער הריבית על מנת לחשב את הערך הנוכחי של תקבולים עתידיים, אבל כדי לתרגם זאת למונחים יותר יישומיים תחשבו על כך הפוך:

בשער הריבית הנמוך השורר היום אנו מרויחים הרבה פחות תשואה על אותו סכום שנחסך מאשר לפני 25 שנים.

אז איך זה קשור לשוק הנדל"ן בארה"ב?

פשוט מאוד, התשואה על נדל"ן בארה"ב היא 10% -7%, כלומר בניית תיק נדל"ן בארה"ב הינה אלטרנטיבה לחסכון נושא תשואה גבוהה.

כאשר אנו מתרגמים זאת למונחי רבית דריבית , המעבר להשקעה בנדל"ן בארה"ב נעשה משמעותי יותר כי עודף התשואה מושקע מחדש מדי שנה ומאפשר לנו להגיע לפרישה עם תיק נדל"ן בארה"ב כתוספת לפנסיה.

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